by Mandira Bagwandeen
Abstract
As per the African Union’s 2016 prescription, most new rail projects in Africa are greenfield standard gauge railways (SGR) that cost billions of dollars, which, if successfully implemented and well run, can offer better services than road transport. However, to be viable, SGR investments must have adequate freight traffic, provide reliable services, and charge much lower tariffs than the trucking industry. This means that SGRs will very likely have to be subsidized, which most African governments cannot afford to do. Based on the rail economics for SGRs, this article argues that it would be more feasible for most African countries to invest in upgrading and expanding brownfield rail infrastructure in the short-to-medium term. Using Kenya’s Nairobi-Naivasha SGR as a case study, this article contextualizes and critically analyzes the greenfield vs. brownfield rail infrastructure debate that underpins Africa’s railway renaissance and demonstrates that SGR investments may not necessarily be the most feasible rail projects for developing African economies.
Mandira Bagwandeen is a Senior Research Fellow at The Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, University of Cape Town. Her research focuses on Africa’s Regional Integration and Industrialisation and Africa-China relations.